is the horizon set by Emmanuel Macron realistic?

is the horizon set by Emmanuel Macron realistic?
is the horizon set by Emmanuel Macron realistic?
Several scientists believe that it is still very difficult to predict a precise date for the end of the crisis and stress that vaccination must be stepped up.

A new perspective for the French to end the crisis? On Wednesday evening, during his speech, Emmanuel Macron first announced new restrictive measures to fight against the spread of Covid-19, including the closure of schools for the weeks to come.

However, the President of the Republic also mentioned the possibility of the reopening “from mid-May” of “meeting places, culture, restaurants, cafes.” In reality, with regard to restaurants, only establishments equipped with terraces will be able, under certain conditions, to welcome the public again on that date.

An “illusory” schedule

While the executive had already mentioned possible releases in mid-April, the French are increasingly doubting the feasibility of such an announcement and a return to normal in the coming months. For their part, the scientists also express some doubts about the horizon of mid-May, especially as some of them underline the lightness of the measures announced by the Head of State.

Contacted by, epidemiologist and biostatistician Catherine Hill violently tackles the executive, citing an “illusory” schedule.

“We are going straight into the wall and we will continue to go there these measures are really insufficient. Mid-May it is in very very little time, in six weeks, if the situation is not worse than today it will already be very good, ”she says.

“If the goal is zero Covid, that will not be enough”

Asked about BFMTV this Thursday morning, epidemiologist Pascal Crepey considers that it is “very difficult” to answer this question. “For the moment, we do not yet know the level of effectiveness of these measures, we cannot estimate the slope of the curve of the descent, if there is indeed a slope, but we hope that these measures will be sufficient to curb the epidemic dynamic “, he explains.

But above all, the one who is also a teacher-researcher at the Rennes School of Public Health Studies, recalls that the government has not given “an objective in terms of viral circulation.”

“If the objective is zero Covid, then that will not be enough, but if the objective is to find a situation which makes it possible to manage and reopen the various businesses, then perhaps, but we will have to make progress on vaccination. “

In his reflection, he is joined by Philippe Froguel, geneticist at the University Hospital of Lille and at Imperial College London, who thinks that the way out of the crisis will “probably not” be done quickly.

“The president has announced 10,000 intensive care beds in all, which means that he is not expecting quick results. The bet is to vaccinate quickly and that we have a situation with much better figures in June. and July. The great hope is that the vaccination will go as the government said, “he said on BFMTV, stressing that for the government’s” bet “to be held, it was necessary to vaccinate “500,000 people a day.”

The climate, a powerful ally?

Finally, experts believe that the climate could be an ally of the executive in its desire to reopen certain cultural places and terraces in May.

“What he is counting on is the climate effect. There is a seasonality in the transmission of the virus. We are counting on the spring and summer to help beyond the vaccination. We are not talking about a complete deconfinement in May, but a slight relaxation for activities with lower risk of contamination, “concludes Pascal Crepey.

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