who will be penalized the most, what savings for the state?

who will be penalized the most, what savings for the state?
who will be penalized the most, what savings for the state?
Following the publication of the final version of the decree reforming Unedic, the latter is publishing a new impact study.

The decree implementing the controversial unemployment insurance reform as of July 1, with certain adjustments and deadlines, was published on March 31.

It confirms the entry into force on July 1 of the modification of the calculation of the daily reference salary (SJR, base of the allowance), with a floor mechanism. The reform also creates, as planned, a “bonus-malus” on the unemployment insurance contribution of companies in sectors that are large consumers of precarious contracts.

17% less allowance but for 14 months instead of 11

Following the publication of this text, Unedic has put online a second impact study of the reform by trying to answer two questions: who will be most affected and what will be the savings for the State?

Regarding benefit recipients, Unedic confirms its first assessment. “1.15 million beneficiaries will open a right with a lower daily allowance (by 17% on average) than with the rules in force until then, while the theoretical duration of compensation would be established at 14 months in average, against 11 months with the pre-reform rules “, we can read. This corresponds to the philosophy put forward by the government: lower but longer allowances.

Among these recipients, 365,000 people would have a reduction in allowance limited by the device of the floor, adds the organization.

With the change to a minimum 6-month membership (which will come into force after “return to better fortune”), 190,000 people would not have access to rights in the first 12 months following the entry into force of the measure and 285,000 people would see their opening of rights delayed, by 5 months on average.

According to Unédic, young people will be particularly affected by the reform: 22 %% of those under 25 in the 2.8 million people who will be eligible for unemployment between July 2021 and July 2022 and 30% of those affected by the reform of the RLS calculation.

In terms of budgetary savings, once all the measures have been taken in charge, “the reform would lead to lower expenditure of 2.3 billion euros per year”. But the context calls for caution.

“The financial effects expected for 2022 are conditioned on the date of return to better fortune. In the event of application of the degressivity measures and the minimum membership condition of 6 months on January 1, 2022, the least expenditure would amount to 1 , 9 billion euros; in the event of application of these measures beyond 2022, the least expenditure would be 1.2 billion euros “, nuance Unedic.

Olivier Chicheportiche BFM Business journalist

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