Covid-19: 10 million first-time vaccines, what impact on the epidemic?

Covid-19: 10 million first-time vaccines, what impact on the epidemic?
Covid-19: 10 million first-time vaccines, what impact on the epidemic?

VACCINATION – France crossed the 10 million mark on Thursday with at least one dose against Covid-19, or nearly 15% of its population. Is an impact on the epidemic already possible?

Idèr Nabili – 2021-04-08T15:26:14.716+02:00

A first objective achieved. From the vaccination center of Nogent-sur-Marne (Val-de-Marne), Prime Minister Jean Castex announced on Thursday that France had exceeded the bar of 10 million people having received their first dose of vaccine against the Covid -19 in the country. Either the objective that the government was aiming for in mid-April. With a week ahead of forecasts, the acceleration of the campaign must continue in the coming weeks.

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Covid-19: the challenge of vaccination

The deliveries expected over the next two months should now allow the government to achieve its following objectives: 20 million first-time vaccinated in mid-May, 30 million in mid-June, while people over 60 years old will be eligible from next weekend. According to the Ministry of the Economy, 12 million doses will be delivered to France in April, and 15 in June. A figure necessary to reduce the epidemic, even if the impact of vaccination on the contaminations curve is still not very visible.

No short-term effect on the dynamics of the epidemic

“This is an important step, but with 10 million vaccinated, we are still very far from having vaccination coverage that would prevent the circulation of the virus”, explains to LCI Vincent Maréchal, professor of virology. Because the current stabilization of the indicators is not due to vaccination. “We knew we would not get out of this peak by vaccination”, indicates on LCI Professor Frédéric Lapostolle, professor of emergency medicine at the Avicenne hospital (Bobigny). On the other hand, “we will get out of the epidemic thanks to the vaccine”.

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However, the first effects of vaccine immunity seem to be visible, especially in the most vaccinated age groups. According to data from the Ministry of Health and relayed by CovidTracker, more than 75% of people aged 75 and over have received a first dose (around 32% both). While this did not prevent the number of cases from increasing during the month of March, the incidence rate of over 80s remained much lower than other age groups, increasing less quickly.

“10 million is symbolic, there is still a way to go”

However, this is still very insufficient to contain the epidemic. The Institut Pasteur estimates, for example, that if vaccination is only authorized from the age of 18, and if the virus remains as contagious as the current British variant, then 90% of the adult population would need to be vaccinated to release completely barrier measures in the fall.

“This shows that 10 million vaccinated is good, it’s symbolic, but there is still some way to go”, Vincent Maréchal analysis. “We remain very far from collective immunity. The challenge for the coming months is to convince those who resist vaccination, do not want it. Because if the vaccination coverage is insufficient, the virus will continue to circulate among those who do not. are not vaccinated, with the risk of seeing the emergence of variants. “

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